Digital Harvest Digital Harvest  ·  Department of Agriculture  ·  Philippines

El Niño is here. Which fields are most at risk?

Sugarcane farm, Passi City, Iloilo.
The regional El Niño signal is known. This shows where it lands, field by field, before the harvest tells you.
Dry turn forecast
from August
about 4 weeks out
Aug–Sep rainfall vs 2025
-37%
the growth months before milling
El Niño · PAGASA
Alert
present, intensifying into year-end
Rainfall
This season against last year
This season tracks below last year from August onward. That gap, already forecast at 37% below 2025, falls on the months when the crop is building weight before milling starts.
What this means for the crop
August and September are when this cane builds its weight before milling. Less rain in those months means less of what the crop uses to develop tonnage. The fields already showing the weakest condition going into August carry the highest exposure.
Which fields are most at risk?
The weather across all 63 fields is nearly identical, yet the crop condition across them is not. A dry spell does not hit a uniform farm, it hits fields that are already in different states. The crop condition picture is from April 2026.
Hover any bar to see the field name
Most at risk
16 fields
bottom quarter, already the weakest going into August
Farm range
0.14 – 0.66
a single farm average would have shown 0.36 and missed all of this
Bottom quarter — most exposed Below average Above average
What the infrastructure makes possible
What you see here is what becomes possible when a data foundation exists for every field: weather and crop condition, continuously updated, at field resolution, ready to be queried at any time. Without that foundation, none of this exists. With it, this view can be generated on demand, for any farm, at any scale.
1

For each El Niño season, an LGU can see which fields are entering the growth months in the weakest state, weeks before the impact shows up in the harvest.

2

The same foundation keeps updating monthly, so the picture sharpens as the season develops, and the office has a picture of the season as it develops, not only once harvest is in.

One farm here. The same infrastructure scales to every farm in an LGU, a province, or the whole country. And because each field has its own record, it can connect to whatever the office already holds: planting logs, input records, production history.
Weather figures are modeled and include a historical estimate and a forward forecast to year-end. Crop condition is monitored monthly; the latest available data runs through April 2026. El Niño outlook sourced from PAGASA (advisory, June 2026).